Most polls consider "likely voters" based on those who have voted previously. Young voters are very rarely calculated in polling analysis ahead of elections because they have no track record of voting yet. And that women in Kansas, Wisconsin and Michigan are disproportionately registering as Democrats.Īccording to the numbers, "62 percent of women registering since Dobbs registered as Democrats, 15 percent as Republicans." Meanwhile, the most striking factor is that 54 percent of those registering as Democrats were younger than 25. That difference is what’s playing out in ways that, as Hoover indicated, Republicans appear to have neglected.ĪLSO IN THE NEWS: Trump ordered a nuclear reactor on the moon in his final days as presidentĪn analysis by Targetsmart Insights shows that more women than men are registering to vote ahead of the November midterm. While many Americans consider themselves personally "pro-life," they also support the freedom for others to choose. This is an impact this is playing in November."įor decades, Republicans have relied on polling about voters’ personal beliefs about abortion. You see how motivated suburban women are. I sensed they were wrong and they pointed to data that didn't add up. This will not be an issue in the election,'" said Hoover. This isn't going to hurt the Republicans. Wade was overturned, I talked to Republican consultant after Republican consultant, who said, 'Meh, it's already baked in the cake. Republican Margaret Hoover told CNN's Jim Acosta on Sunday that the Supreme Court Dobbs decision would have a huge impact on the midterms. Weeks later, data is now starting to roll in showing two major trends for 2022 midterm elections that could prevent Republicans from getting the "red wave" they were banking on. On August 2, 2022, voters resoundingly rejected this amendment. Until very recently, the only real data that could illustrate the impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was a Kansas ballot measure that would amend the state’s constitution to make it easy to ban abortion outright in the state. 23 primary and special elections in New York, when passionately pro-choice Democrat Pat Ryan trounced his opponent. MSNBC's Steve Kornacki spoke about a shift he was seeing in the electorate heading into November after the Aug.
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